Politics not only bring together strange pairs but can also cause trouble with neighbors, it seems. According to a study from the University of Virginia using info from North Carolina records, people are 4% more likely to sell their homes and move within two years if their new neighbors have different political views. This is compared to those whose neighbors share their political leanings.
“Political identity and partisanship are salient features of today’s society,” the researchers explain. “Using deeds records and voter rolls, we show that current residents are more likely to sell their homes when opposite-party neighbors move in nearby than when unaffiliated or same-party neighbors do.
Birds of a feather
“We document that an aversion to living near members of the opposite party is an important factor affecting households’ home-sale decisions. Our causal test shows that households are willing to sell their homes and move—an enormously costly activity—when presented with opposite-party neighbors.”
While the numbers are thought to reflect broader societal trends, it’s important to note that the study’s data was confined to North Carolina. Researchers honed in on politically affiliated residents using public records. Interestingly, the inclination to relocate was observed in both Republicans and Democrats.
“That we’re seeing any movement there at all is kind of surprising because moving is very expensive,” the authors continue. “You can imagine that, if you didn’t like your new neighbor, you would just send more angry tweets, or something.
Upping sticks
“The main finding in the paper is that people who get a new neighbor with opposite-party affiliation are 3.41 percentage points more likely to move. That’s 4% more likely than someone whose new neighbor is of the same affiliation,” he said. “We’re estimating it’s about 1% of all moves. That may not seem like a lot, but that is thousands of moves every year.”
Various factors contribute to the ebb and flow of people in and out of communities, shaping the political landscape of cities and neighborhoods. The political affiliation of an area can be quite distinct, with some regions leaning strongly Republican or Democrat. This pattern isn’t solely tied to rural or urban distinctions; it can extend down to specific neighborhoods.
Neighborhood preferences often revolve around what can be termed as “amenity bundles.” These bundles may include local schools, public or private, parks, or even restaurants that draw in residents. As people seek out these amenities, they may find themselves drawn to a neighborhood or, conversely, decide to move elsewhere based on the available offerings.
Gradual homily
There are two main ideas about why cities end up with people who think alike. One idea is that folks who share similar values naturally end up living close to each other. The other idea is that some people don’t want to live near others who have different political views, like seeing Joe Biden flags or ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ stickers. They say, ‘I don’t want that around me,’ so they move away. Both situations lead to cities where people mostly think the same way, but for different reasons.
This study tried to figure out which of these reasons is more important. It looked at real estate data and public records about political affiliations in North Carolina. The goal was to narrow down the reasons and show that politics is the main factor behind why cities end up politically divided.
“Disentangling the potential causes in the data is really hard, so we fixed the amenity bundle so the only thing that’s different between the residents we studied was who is getting the opposite-party neighbor and who is not,” the authors conclude. “When we see the current residents getting the opposite-party neighbors are more likely to move, that’s first-order evidence that there’s something about the new neighbor that’s causing them to move.”
