A recent study from the University of Colorado Boulder shows that what happens in the job market in Phoenix can actually affect how kids are educated in Mexico. Researchers found that people from different parts of Mexico tend to move to specific areas in the United States. And when jobs dry up in those places, many of those migrants go back to Mexico.
The study looked at how neighboring counties in Mexico were impacted during the Great Recession, revealing how closely linked the U.S. job market is to the lives of people in Mexico.
Widespread impact
For their analysis, the researchers relied on data from the Matrícula Consular de Alta Seguridad (MCAS), a government agency that issues identity cards to Mexican migrants.
Unlike the U.S. or Mexican census, the MCAS offers detailed information about migrant workers, including which municipios they come from in Mexico and where they settle in the United States.
One key discovery from the MCAS data is that people from the same municipio often end up in the same cities and states in the U.S. These connections are so strong that migrants from nearby municipios can end up living hundreds of miles apart in the U.S.
For instance, migrants from Dolores Hidalgo tend to move to Texas, while those from nearby Jaral del Progreso often head to Chicago, California, and the Southwest. It’s like they’re from the same area in Mexico but end up in different time zones in the U.S.
Proximity matters
The proximity of the municipios is crucial because it helps eliminate other factors that could influence the results. When municipios are close together, they tend to experience similar weather patterns, face similar challenges like droughts, and have comparable laws. This similarity means that any differences in their economic situations are likely due to something they don’t share—specifically, the job market conditions in the cities and states where their migrants relocated.
To uncover these differences, the researchers looked at how much the job market suffered in the U.S. regions linked to each municipio. Then they compared the economic outcomes in the municipios connected to areas hit hardest by job losses with those connected to areas that fared better.
For example, Texas didn’t take as big a hit during the Great Recession, so the municipios of migrants who moved there saw fewer changes. However, the American Southwest faced significant challenges, leading to noticeable shifts in the municipios connected to that region.
Unexpected findings
The researchers noticed some unexpected changes, one of which was an increase in the number of women entering the Mexican workforce.
“This is called the added worker effect,” the researchers explain. “When the primary earner of a household”—in this case, the migrant laborer—”loses their job, it’s a common reaction by the household to say, ‘Let’s send someone else to work.'”
Similarly, there was also an unexpected drop in school retention, with the loss of jobs in the US coinciding with a reduction in school investment in Mexico. This, in turn, resulted in higher dropout rates.
Smarter choices
What do these findings imply about the perceived division between these two countries and their economies? They blur the lines of separation, making the distinction a bit less clear-cut.
“One of the things we’re finding is how connected these two economies are,” the researchers explain. “On the one hand, the stark differences in what someone can earn and what the labor market looks like in one country as opposed to the other suggests that we have made the separation between those countries real and meaningful. On the other hand, we are certainly not islands.”
By appreciating this, they hope that policymaking will be much smarter and more effective, especially concerning immigration, where wisdom is often replaced by emotion.
“When we’re thinking about immigration policy—when we’re thinking about all these things that affect the low-wage labor market—we are making policy that has a real and noticeable effect on the lives of people who are not even here,” they conclude.
