More than 4 million Ukrainians fled their homeland following the Russian invasion in February 2022, with most seeking refuge in neighboring and other European countries.

Research tracking the evolving plans and integration outcomes of Ukrainians across Europe shows that around the start of this year, 58% still plan to return home when it is safe, and 7% aim to go back soon. Only 8% planned to settle permanently outside Ukraine.

Tracking intentions

The study, which surveyed 11,783 Ukrainian refugees, was launched in June 2022. Led by King’s College London’s Department of Political Economy, in partnership with the research agency Verian, the researchers tracked the changing plans of the refugees over 18 months, recording their locations, return plans, and integration efforts such as work, training, or study.

Initially, two-thirds of those surveyed intended to return home when it became safe, but this percentage has decreased over time. Notably, 33% of those who planned to return soon have already done so, while none who intended to settle permanently abroad have returned.

The survey also revealed that the liberation of a refugee’s home district significantly increased their likelihood of returning. However, intense conflict in their home municipalities reduced the probability of returning to those specific areas, although it did not deter return to Ukraine in general.

The researchers also found that refugees who do not intend to return to Ukraine invested more in acquiring local human capital, such as language skills and labor market integration. Those from districts still occupied by Russian forces were more likely to invest in their integration due to lower return intentions.

Human capital

“The success of post-war reconstruction and development efforts in Ukraine will depend crucially on the quantity and quality of available human capital,” the researchers explain. “The Ukrainian population had been declining even before the Russian invasion, with deaths outnumbering births annually since 1991.”

“Furthermore, pervasive corruption and low confidence in the judiciary—underscored by Ukraine’s ranking of 104th out of 180 countries in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index—act as deterrents to return migration.”

“A critical challenge for Ukraine will be to leverage the common purpose fostered by the war to drive broader institutional and cultural changes. By addressing these challenges, Ukraine can enhance the appeal of returning for refugees and effectively utilize their human capital in the post-war rebuilding process.”