New crime laws and increased police funding might help reduce homicide rates in the United States, but the biggest impact will come from the actions of our political and economic elites.
That’s the conclusion of historian Randolph Roth, author of the 2009 book American Homicide, in a new report for the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.
A clear link
Roth, a professor at The Ohio State University, shows that homicide rates are linked to how people feel about their government and their sense of community.
Right now, the United States is at a critical point, Roth says. “Over the past 450 years in the Western world, political stability has been the most powerful correlate of high homicide rates. The return of political stability could, if it continues over the next few years, lower our nation’s homicide rate,” he explains.
“But what may matter most is the behavior of America’s political and economic elites. They have the power, for good or ill, over the homicide rate.”
These elites include wealthy Americans, corporate leaders, and political leaders from both parties.
How we feel
The idea that homicide rates are driven by how people feel about the government and each other might seem odd. But this theory fits the evidence better than common explanations like guns, poverty, drugs, race, or a permissive justice system.
The key is to make people feel empowered, included in their community, that they matter to those around them, and that the government will protect them and their family.
“Small slights and disagreements don’t bother me as much if I feel empowered in society, believe the government treats me fairly, and feel connected to my neighbors,” Roth explains. “But if I feel powerless, unfairly treated by the government, and alienated from my neighbors, small disagreements and insults could enrage me and even lead to violence.”
Nation building
The research shows that the key to low homicide rates is successful nation-building. And nation-building is a continuous process; it can’t be declared complete at any point.
There are four factors related to successful nation-building: political stability and the belief that the government will protect lives and property; a legitimate social hierarchy and the belief that one can gain respect without resorting to violence and that upward mobility is possible; fellow feeling, which is patriotism, empathy, and sympathy from solidarity with others; and legitimate government, or trust in the government and its officials.
Between 2014 and 2021, the U.S. homicide rate rose by 60%, from 4.9 to 7.8 persons per 100,000 per year. This was a period of partisan division and conflict when all four nation-building factors were under stress, Roth says.
Political instability
One key example was political instability. American history shows that the number of protests and riots ending in lethal violence—an indicator of political instability—closely tracks the ups and downs of everyday homicides of unrelated adults.
The recent rise in homicides coincided with a spate of deadly protests, from the 2014 protests over Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson, Missouri, to the 2021 Capitol riot in Washington, D.C.
“Deadly riots and protests are symptoms of lost faith in the government’s ability to protect our lives, property, and basic rights, however we might define them,” Roth explains.
Another example is the growing loss of faith in America’s social hierarchy, including the ability of our children to get ahead in society.
From 1999 to 2015, among families in the bottom half of the income distribution, homicide rates tripled in counties with low intergenerational mobility compared to those with high mobility.
Few chances
When people feel they can’t get ahead, they become resentful, frustrated, and powerless, which can lead to violence and murder.
Most recently, homicide rates have reportedly dropped sharply. According to provisional CDC data, the rate fell from 7.8 per 100,000 in 2021 to 7.3 in 2022 and 6.7 in 2023. This is still over a third higher than in 2014 but declining. This decrease matches a period with fewer deadly protests or riots since the Capitol riot. The prosecution of many rioters may have restored some public trust in the government.
But these short-term improvements are not guaranteed to last. Forces and factions in society, especially among elites, are driving political instability.
Negative forces include dark money vilifying political leaders, gerrymandering, voter suppression, social media disinformation, and efforts to discredit elections and overturn results, the report explains.
But elites still have the power to change things.
“If they band together to address the opportunity crisis for America’s poorer communities, defend the country’s institutions and their legitimacy, and reject divisive rhetoric, it would go a long way toward forging a stronger nation and reducing the homicide rate in the United States,” Roth concludes.
