It’s a common belief among demographers that America’s counties fall into two categories: the prosperous ones along the coasts that generate most jobs and revenue, and the struggling ones in the middle that have been losing jobs and population for over a decade.
Therefore, it was surprising to find new data from the nonpartisan Economic Innovation Group (EIG) telling a more complex story. EIG examined 972 counties labeled as “left behind” and found they have seen a modest recovery over recent years.
Small improvements
This recovery is relative, but still noteworthy. From 2020 to 2023, these counties gained over four times more jobs than in the previous four years. They created new businesses at their fastest rate in the 21st century. While 48 percent of these counties still lagged behind the national income growth rate, this is an improvement from 70 percent in the prior seven years. Population loss slowed to 0.1 percent compared to 0.4 percent between 2016 and 2020. Nearly half of them have regained most of the jobs lost during the pandemic.
These counties were classified as “left behind” because between 2000 and 2016, their population and median household income grew at less than half the national rate. Home to 59 million people, they represent 18 percent of the national population. Most are rural, though there are some urban ones, generally more populous.
It’s important not to overstate this recovery. Household income in these 972 counties still trails the rest of the U.S., and there are still fewer jobs than there were 25 years ago. But the changes are significant. As the study authors note, “Rural left-behind counties are among those leading the post-pandemic employment recovery.”
Michigan has the most left-behind counties, with 63 hosting 6.7 million residents, slightly more than neighboring Illinois and Ohio. The study highlights Van Buren County in western Michigan, which lost 3,000 jobs during the Great Recession but has now regained them.
Change afoot
Something is happening in these left-behind areas, particularly in rural regions. The key question is what. The simplest answer might be the benefits of the Biden administration’s economic programs, especially the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.
These initiatives have directed over $1 trillion in grants and tax credits to stimulate production of advanced batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and new power lines. The administration claims these subsidies have spurred over $250 billion in private investment, much of it in left-behind counties. White House climate advisor Ali Zaidi stated last year that this investment focuses on “places where opportunity has left.”
This is a big part of the story, but not all. It doesn’t fully explain the reversal in population decline and the surge in new businesses. Manufacturing has been expanding in many parts of America, not just in Rust Belt areas but also in the low-wage South and West. Demographer Alan Mallach noted that many new factories since the 1980s are in Texas, California, and South Carolina, rather than older cities or Northeastern and Midwestern states. Manufacturing remains strong in the U.S.
Lack of job growth
Even so, as of 2018, there hadn’t been much increase in jobs or new businesses in left-behind places. Many new factories operate with fewer workers. As recently as 2020, these counties were losing population rapidly.
A new factor since 2020 is the rise of remote work. This trend, while mainly affecting middle-class and professional workers, has allowed some urban and suburban workers to move to cheaper, quieter, and safer areas. It’s not a huge migration, but likely enough to show up in the EIG survey. This may help turn major population losses into smaller, more manageable ones.
Additionally, many African Americans, particularly middle-class individuals, have moved to southern areas where they have family roots. Most of these moves are to urban and suburban areas around cities like Dallas, Atlanta, and Charlotte, but there is also significant migration to rural and small-town South.
Not forgotten
While left-behind counties and small towns are often seen as forgotten, scholars and activists have paid attention to them for years. In the 1950s, Richard Poston developed a theory of revival called “community drama,” where townspeople study and dramatize their town’s history and future. His ideas gained some attention but had limited success.
Longer-lasting efforts come from the Center for Small Towns at the University of Minnesota and the Center for Rural Affairs in Lyons, Nebraska. These organizations help rural entrepreneurs and immigrants, and work to improve rural communities. Despite their valuable work, larger societal forces have overwhelmed them. Many small towns that thrived in the past now face boarded-up commercial districts and little street life.
Towns with colleges or hospitals (“eds and meds”) tend to survive and sometimes thrive. County-seat towns often struggle but benefit from a permanent governmental presence. Small towns without these advantages are often dying, contributing to their counties’ left-behind status.
The EIG study suggests that some of this decline may be reversing. The Biden administration, as one policy adviser told Anthony Flint, is committed to ensuring that “hard-hit communities and workers reap the benefits” of infrastructure and clean-energy renewal, “including deindustrialized communities.” It would be a mistake to overstate this turnaround, but equally mistaken to ignore it.
