Climate change and environmental shifts often force people to migrate when their land can no longer sustain their way of life. These migrating populations, in turn, impact the environments where they resettle.
However, the complex relationship between migration and environmental change, especially in rural areas, remains poorly understood, according to a new paper from Colorado State University. The authors argue that understanding these dynamics is crucial to shaping sustainability policies that address the inevitable changes in climate, land, and migration patterns.
Climate displacement
While mass displacements due to disasters or conflicts tend to grab headlines, most migration occurs within national borders in response to slow, gradual changes unrelated to crises. The paper suggests that rural-to-rural migration, which happens quietly and over time, will become increasingly important as climate and land changes intensify. People often prefer smaller, more affordable moves over long-distance relocations, but even short-distance migrations can have significant effects on local environments.
The researchers emphasize the need to understand how rural-to-rural migration systems work. As one of the authors notes, “People will first try to adapt within their existing livelihoods using strategies they know. Understanding these small-scale migrations will help us better address larger urban and international movements sustainably.”
To do this, the authors advocate for integrating land system science—which studies how land is used and managed—into migration research. By examining the connections between migration and land use, better policies can be developed to address the environmental challenges of migration.
Adapting to change
Climate change is expected to hit low- and middle-income countries the hardest. Anticipating and managing future land use will be key to helping these countries adapt. This could involve providing rural communities with tools to adjust to environmental changes so that migration becomes less necessary or improving land-use planning in areas receiving migrants.
The paper points out that internal migration is far more common than international migration. Recent estimates put the number of international migrants worldwide at around 280 million, while internal migrants are thought to number two or three times that. The researchers focus on internal migration dynamics in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries, where people are especially vulnerable to changing climates and environments.
Migration decisions are influenced by a mix of factors, including politics, economics, environmental changes, and personal resources like social networks, money, and land. According to the authors, everyone is a potential migrant—what matters is whether and when they cross a threshold that prompts them to move. In rural areas, this is often tied to the gradual decline in land productivity. A single bad harvest, a pest outbreak, or a year of poor rainfall can be enough to push a family over that threshold.
Simulated change
The team used simulations to explore how various factors, such as rainfall patterns, land ownership, and social networks, affect migration decisions. They found that social networks play a crucial role in whether people decide to move, but these networks behave differently depending on whether a region experiences a sudden drought or a slow decline in rainfall. Strong local networks combined with less severe environmental decline reduce the likelihood of migration.
The researchers also highlight the concept of “telecouplings”—the connections between distant areas influenced by migration. For example, economic activities or changing weather patterns in one location can predict land use changes in another, as migrating populations affect the ecosystem services of their new environments.
In conclusion, the authors stress that these complex links between migration and environmental change need to be better understood. By exploring how events in one area can cascade through migration to impact distant landscapes, policymakers can craft more effective strategies for managing migration and environmental sustainability.
