A recent study from the University of Skövde shows that, while climate change is driving more people to migrate, social and economic factors still play a major role in the decision to move. Using artificial intelligence (AI), the researchers were able to predict future migration patterns and offer insights on how to help communities affected by climate change.

Every year, millions of people are forced to leave their homes due to climate disasters like droughts and floods, especially in areas that depend on farming. But the study finds that while extreme weather matters, economic and social issues are often even more important in determining who migrates.

The researchers used AI and machine learning to analyze large sets of data, looking at things like age, gender, education, social networks, infrastructure, and government support, alongside climate data. “With AI, we’ve been able to get a clearer understanding of who is likely to migrate and when,” they explained.

Strong link

Their findings show that severe climate events, like long droughts or major floods, are linked to international migration. Milder climate stress tends to cause more local migration within countries. The study also found that younger men, and people with connections abroad, are more likely to consider leaving when weather conditions worsen.

“AI helps us see patterns that traditional methods often miss,” the researchers said. This can help predict future migration and give at-risk communities the tools they need to cope with climate change. By combining social and climate data, AI models can pinpoint which areas are most vulnerable, helping policymakers prepare better strategies.

The study’s insights can help governments and international organizations plan ahead, offering better support to communities that are likely to face extreme weather in the future.