A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the University of Potsdam shows that a growing number of regions are managing to grow their economies while cutting carbon emissions—a crucial step in fighting climate change. Around 30% of the 1,500 regions studied over the past 30 years have successfully “decoupled” economic growth from CO? emissions. This shift is promising but not yet fast enough to meet the global target of net-zero emissions by 2050.
Regions that succeed in reducing emissions while still growing are often high-income areas with a past reliance on heavy industry or have a strong base in services or manufacturing. This pattern suggests that both established and emerging economies can pursue paths to greener growth.
But the pace of progress is a worry. The study warns that, at current rates, most regions will fall short of net-zero emissions by 2050—a key milestone for keeping global temperatures stable. Simply put, economic growth and carbon emissions must be fully uncoupled if economies are to grow without worsening climate change.
Leading the way
The report finds that Europe leads in this trend, benefiting from solid climate policies and funding for green initiatives. European cities with strong climate action plans have seen some of the best progress. Meanwhile, North America and Asia, while improving in recent years, have been less consistent, showing how difficult it is to sustain decoupling in different economic settings.
Unlike past studies that focused on whole nations or single cities, this research takes a closer look across regions, adding a layer of detail to the global picture. By comparing regional economic growth with production-based carbon emissions, the researchers identified meaningful decoupling patterns worldwide. Yet, the study doesn’t account for emissions tied to consumption, which often come from international trade—a gap that future studies could address.
Looking ahead, the researchers estimate that developed regions are more likely to reach net-zero earlier than others. Still, the overall outlook is cautious: without faster decoupling, fewer than half of the regions will achieve net-zero by mid-century. The study calls for a greater push from all levels of government, with an emphasis on support from wealthier nations to help fund green growth in developing countries. The message is clear: a united, global effort is essential if we want to hit the 2050 target.
