The Trump administration has promoted mass deportation of undocumented immigrants as a way to create jobs for American workers and lower housing costs. A new study from the University of Utah suggests the opposite: removing undocumented workers would drain the construction industry, slowing homebuilding and driving up prices.

“When immigration enforcement increases, the number of construction workers drops,” the researchers explain. “And when that happens, homebuilding declines sharply.”

Unintended consequences

The result? Higher housing costs, even for existing homes, worsening the affordability crisis. While deportations might free up some housing, the impact is nowhere near enough to offset the loss of new construction.

The study also finds that removing low-skilled migrant workers can reduce job opportunities across the entire industry. Construction has struggled to recover since the 2008 financial crisis, with homebuilding still lagging. The peak year for new housing since then barely surpasses the lowest levels of the previous five decades.

While much research has focused on zoning laws and regulations, this study examines the role of immigration policy in the housing shortage. The researchers analyzed data from the federal Secure Communities program, which ramped up deportations between 2008 and 2013. By comparing counties that implemented the program at different times, they were able to isolate its effect on home construction.

Missed opportunities

Their findings suggest that increasing deportations led to a county missing out on about a year’s worth of construction over a four-year period. Meanwhile, many vacant construction jobs were not filled by American workers, especially in lower-skilled roles.

“Say two jobs open up because workers are deported,” the researchers explain. “One gets filled by an American, the other remains vacant.”

That shortage of low-skilled labor then disrupts the entire industry. “You need someone to frame the house before plumbers and electricians can finish it,” the authors note.

In short, mass deportations may shrink both the construction workforce and the housing supply—achieving the opposite of what proponents claim.