A few years ago the deans of 50 American business schools wrote an open letter to the then US President Donald Trump, warning him that the current immigration system in the country was stifling growth and opportunity.
Three years later, researchers at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy have produced a paper making a similar argument. They believe that the immigration system is insufficient to ensure that the economy has the skills and talent it needs to be competitive.
“The American workforce will be under enormous stress as demographic changes impact the larger economy,” the authors explain.
Strangling growth
The paper explains that population growth in the US has been slowing for many years, with figures for 2021 recording growth of just 0.1%, which represents the lowest level in the history of the country.
Alongside this slow growth rate is the aging of the population, with over 65s set to outnumber under 18s for the first time by 2034. The authors argue that immigration reform could be crucial in helping to relieve this demographic stress and ensure that the economy is globally competitive.
“There is an urgent need for Congress to act, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the many barriers, challenges, vulnerabilities and inequities facing vulnerable populations such as the elderly and immigrants, and exposed key weaknesses in the U.S. labor market,” they write. “It is also paramount for the United States to invest in its essential workforce now and for the future.”
Net migration
The authors believe that over the next decade, the US will see net international migration surpass native births as the biggest driver of population growth, as American fertility rates have fallen by 4% in 2020, which represents a new low for the nation.
“And because, increasingly, migrants from Latin America and Asia are younger and their fertility rates higher than in previous years, the U.S. will become more ethnically diverse,” they explain.
This is driving a considerable demographic change in the country, as while people of color currently make up around 23% of the over 65 community, this is set to grow to 45% by 2060.
“This will have serious implications for the development of a workforce with linguistic and cultural skills that fit the needs of a growing, diverse population,” the authors say.
They urge US officials to develop new legal immigration avenues while also significantly broadening existing ones to better address the growing needs of the economy.
“Determining the ideal level of immigrant inflows is challenging and often politicized and polarizing, but the United States must modernize an outdated immigration system that is incapable of adapting to the long-term problems ahead,” the authors explain. “Preparing for the coming changes goes beyond studying demographic trends; it requires innovative strategies and solid policy responses.”
Too often immigration is a topic that has been allowed to be viewed in threatening terms, whether to the safety, prosperity, or culture of the nation. None of these claims hold up to evidence, and the authors urge a rapid reframing of the conversation so that immigration is instead viewed as the great opportunity that it is.
