Over the past 30 years, the political divide between rural and urban voters in America has widened, according to research from Cornell University. This divide mostly affects white Americans.
Black and Latino residents in rural areas differ little in their political views from their urban counterparts, unlike white residents, the researchers found. With one in four rural Americans now identifying as nonwhite, these findings raise concerns about the political representation of Black and Latino people. The study suggests more research is needed on rural people of color, including groups beyond Black and Latino communities.
Urban/rural divide
“Rural and urban Americans began to split politically in the late 1990s, and this gap has since grown, reshaping national politics,” the researchers explain. “We wanted to see if this trend affected all Americans, regardless of race and ethnicity.”
From 1970 through the 1990s, rural areas had a balanced mix of Democratic and Republican supporters. But since the late 1990s, rural and urban areas have increasingly supported Republicans and Democrats, respectively.
At the same time, the nonwhite population grew in both rural and urban areas. By the 2020 census, 25% of rural residents identified as nonwhite.
Racial differences
To see if this rural-urban divide also affected people of color, the researchers looked at data from the Cooperative Election Studies survey, which includes many policy questions and a large sample size. They used respondents’ county information to classify them as living in rural or urban areas based on White House definitions.
The study compared Black, Latino, and white voters in both rural and urban areas from 2008 to 2020. Black support for the Democratic Party stayed very high—around 90%—in both rural and urban areas during this period, with little support for Republicans. Latino support for Democrats also stayed consistent, with only slight variations between rural and urban voters.
White voters in urban areas were almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans from 2008 to 2020, with a slight edge for Republicans.
Rural whites
The biggest difference appeared among white voters, with rural whites increasingly supporting Republicans compared to their urban peers.
Why haven’t rural Black and Latino Americans shifted to the Republican party along with rural whites? This question needs more study, the researchers say. One theory is “linked fate”—the idea that individuals see their fate tied to their racial or ethnic group, a concept from political scientist Michael Dawson.
Another theory, from political scientists Ismail K. White and Chyrl N. Laird, suggests that social pressures might lead conservative Black Americans to keep supporting the Democratic Party.
“Understanding why rural and urban Black and Latino Americans vote similarly is crucial for future research,” the researchers conclude.
