There have long been fears that climate change could result in a surge in migration as people flee stricken areas in the hunt for more benign circumstances.  Whereas there has been a sense that many of these fears have been projected into the future, a new paper from the Duke Center for International Development highlights how it’s playing out here and now.

The paper highlights how thousands of families are leaving Central America and arriving at the US/Mexico border, with climate change playing a major role in their decision to make the move.

“Migration from Honduras to the U.S. has been growing for years and increased sharply in 2019,” the authors say. “Our research suggests that this is a result of persistent violence coupled with sharp increases in food insecurity linked to climate change.”

Choosing to move

The researchers obtained data on the location of birth for around 320,000 Honduran families that had been apprehended between 2012 and 2019, and compared that data to local measures of rainfall volatility and homicide rates in the country.

The results clearly suggest that falls in rainfall are linked to a significant increase in migration, with this phenomenon magnified by any increases in violence.  The researchers hope that their work can provide a more informed debate about the root causes of migration, and the subsequent policy responses to it.

“The Biden administration has pledged foreign aid to address the root causes of migration,” the authors conclude. “A multi-track approach to address both agricultural resilience and the difficult knot of violence, corruption and poor governance has the best chance of reducing the need for Hondurans to migrate.”