A common feature of the narrative around immigration is that immigrants displace native citizens from the workforce. Alas, research from UC Davis shows that this is not generally the case. The findings emerged after analyzing what happened during Covid, when immigration levels fell across the United States, but where the jobs that those migrants would have filled were not taken up by American citizens.

“We found that this drop in immigrants corresponded also to a drop in employment in some specific types of occupations, including accommodation and food services, retail trade, non-durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social assistance,” the researchers explain. “The question is, ‘Did Americans move into those sectors and into those states that experienced the biggest drop in immigrants?’ And the answer is, ‘no.'”

Filling posts

The researchers gathered data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey in an analysis that the researchers hope will change the attitudes toward immigration.

They explain that immigration levels had already fallen considerably before Covid hit, with this decline hitting states in very different ways.

“There are some states in which up to 30% to 35% of the population are immigrants, like in California, New York or Texas,” they say. “And then there are some states where there are very few immigrants, like Wyoming and Alabama.”

Sectoral differences

There are also significant differences across sectors, with industries like retail, food services, and healthcare heavily dependent on immigrants. The study found that employment in these sectors fell by 10% or more during 2020, with food services employment suffering an enormous 30% fall in employment.

While there are obviously a range of factors that explain this decline, the researchers believe the fall in immigration played a part. What’s more, it became apparent that Americans weren’t filling the vacancies left by the decline in immigration as there was no evidence that Americans were moving to states with a high historic level of foreign-born residents.

“Jobs were out there, but they were not filled,” the researchers explain. “So, immigrants fill jobs that without them would be essentially unfilled.”

Looking to the future

They note that both immigration and employment have largely returned to their pre-pandemic levels, but they nonetheless believe that their findings should provide a glimpse into the impact of longer-term declines in the level of immigration into the country.

“My research on the economics of immigration is deeply motivated by this idea that immigration is an extraordinary asset for the U.S.,” the lead author concludes. “The U.S. is an aging society; the population is slowing down; and innovation and changes come from new ideas and new people.”